USD/MXN: Easier domestic monetary policy to nudge the Mexican Peso a little lower this year– Scotiabank

The Mexican Peso (MXN) has remained well anchored near the 17.00 level against the US Dollar (USD). Economists at Scotiabank analyze Peso’s outlook.

Slight bias towards a depreciation in the MXN

Political noise coming from the presidential elections in the US and changing expectations regarding the Fed and Banxico’s monetary policy paths remain the currency’s major source of distress. 

We expect easier domestic monetary policy to nudge the MXN a little lower this year but the exchange rate will be sensitive to likely Republican candidate Trump’s comments on trade and tariffs as the US election campaign unfolds.

USD/MXN – Q1-24 17.70 Q2-24 17.80 Q3-24 18.10 Q4-24 18.40