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13 Jun 2013
Flash: AU vols lower - Nomura
FXstreet.com (London) - Saeed Amen strategist at Nomura notes that Gold has been relatively stable in recent weeks, compared with other markets, which have seen large unwinds triggered by increased expectations of Fed tapering following Chairman Bernanke‟s testimony in May.
Indeed, he say’s, gold implied vols are well off their April highs, contrasting with the rise in implied elsewhere. One explanation he mentions is that gold’s large April fall might have already gone someway to pricing in the start of the end of QE price of gold. Indeed, spec positioning is extremely low in gold, which has made it less vulnerable to the position squaring that has afflicted many markets. He points out that Gold has been in somewhat of a flux, with a continuation of gold ETF liquidation (albeit at a slower rate), while Asian demand has supported the downside. While his teams prefer upside, especially because of the lack of spec positioning, they think that to have a decent move higher, gold ETF liquidation will need to turn.
Indeed, he say’s, gold implied vols are well off their April highs, contrasting with the rise in implied elsewhere. One explanation he mentions is that gold’s large April fall might have already gone someway to pricing in the start of the end of QE price of gold. Indeed, spec positioning is extremely low in gold, which has made it less vulnerable to the position squaring that has afflicted many markets. He points out that Gold has been in somewhat of a flux, with a continuation of gold ETF liquidation (albeit at a slower rate), while Asian demand has supported the downside. While his teams prefer upside, especially because of the lack of spec positioning, they think that to have a decent move higher, gold ETF liquidation will need to turn.