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8 Feb 2016
FOMC to keep rates unchanged at the March meeting – Goldman Sachs
Research Team at Goldman Sachs, are revising their Fed call, and now expect the FOMC to keep policy rates unchanged at the March 15-16 meeting.
Key Quotes
“Incoming economic data continue to look broadly consistent with the committee’s outlook, but financial conditions have tightened meaningfully, and officials sound inclined to take more time to gather data and observe market developments. We therefore expect the next rate
increase in June, and see a total of three rate increases this year.
Even after this change, our forecasts remain well-above market pricing, which now shows only about a 50% chance that the Fed raises rates at all this year, and a 25% chance that the committee lowers rates. The first full rate hike is not priced in until about August 2017.”
Key Quotes
“Incoming economic data continue to look broadly consistent with the committee’s outlook, but financial conditions have tightened meaningfully, and officials sound inclined to take more time to gather data and observe market developments. We therefore expect the next rate
increase in June, and see a total of three rate increases this year.
Even after this change, our forecasts remain well-above market pricing, which now shows only about a 50% chance that the Fed raises rates at all this year, and a 25% chance that the committee lowers rates. The first full rate hike is not priced in until about August 2017.”