UK CPI and German Zew amongst major market movers today – Danske Bank

Research Team at Danske Bank, lists down the key market movers for the day from across the globe.

Key Quotes

“Today's Riksbank minutes from the 5 July meeting (9:30 CET) is the key event in the Scandi markets. At the meeting, the Riksbank reduced both its GDP and inflation forecasts slightly on the back of Brexit and also delayed the first rate hike by a quarter to Q3 17 with a somewhat slower pace thereafter. As the Bank of England has said it will cut again and June inflation dropped slightly below the Riksbank's forecast, we will look for any clues on what might be the Riksbank's next move. Should the ECB (later this week) and the Fed (later this month) also turn out to be 'cautious', pressure on the Riksbank to act will of course increase. Our current working assumption is that the Riksbank, at some point later this year, will have to match an increase in the ECB's QE programme.

UK CPI data (10:30 CET) is estimated to show slightly higher inflation in June (0.4% y/y).

The German ZEW expectations index is due to be released at 11:00 CET and is estimated to fall back to 9.0 due to the Brexit vote, having rebounded last month to 19.2.

The Central Bank of Turkey will publish its rate decision today at 13:00 CET. Following the failed coup on Friday, the central bank has provided unlimited lira liquidity. We do not expect it to take further steps by cutting rates today.

US housing starts due at 14:30 CET are estimated to be little changed in June, with consensus looking for a 0.1% increase.”