US: ADP employment might provide a sneak preview to Friday’s NFP report - Rabobank

Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank, suggests that in the US we have the ADP employment change coming up, which might provide a sneak preview to Friday’s almighty NFP report.

Key Quotes

“The NFP data has added significance since a March rate hike is essentially priced in with only the NFP standing in the way of a hike. If this all feels somewhat like a déjà vu, you are correct since we had a similar situation last year with markets instead primed for a June hike. Yet that time the NFP report in early June threw a massive spanner in the carefully calibrated (Fed) works. Surely such an unanticipated event cannot happen again, can it? If it’s any consolation, this time around a March rate hike is only 98% priced in.”