When are the UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?

The UK retail sales Overview

The UK retail sales data is expected to drop sharply by -0.5% m/m in March, while on an annualized basis, retail sales are seen ticking higher by 2.0%. In February, retail sales rebounded by 0.8% over the month and 1.5% annually. Meanwhile, core retail sales data, excluding fuel, are expected to come in at -0.4% m/m and 1.4% y/y. The report will be published later this session at 0830 GMT.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

 Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of upto 100 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

An upside surprise in the UK retail sales data could offer fresh impetus to the GBP bulls, taking the rate back above the 1.4250 barrier. While GBP/USD could revert to the 1.4170-50 support area should the data drop more than expected.

Jim Langlands at FX Charts, noted, “Cable seems to have put in a medium-term top for now, and with the momentum indicators generally pointing a bit lower, we could now be in for a retest of the 1.4173 session lows, below which would allow a run towards 1.4120 and possibly to 1.4050 although that remains some way off.”

“On the topside, sellers will arrive today at 1.4215 and then again at 1.4275 ahead of 1.4300. Further out, if we do take out 1.4315 we could then revisit 1.4375 above which we are left looking at a test of 1.44/1.45, and there is then little to stop a run at the post-Brexit high 1.5022 although that is now a long way off,” Jim added.

Key Notes

UK March retail sales to be negatively impacted by the storms - Barclays

European FX Outlook: Easter expected to boost UK retail sales only little

About the UK retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.