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31 Mar 2014
NZD/USD outlook continues up this week - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - The NZD/USD outlook is up this week, notes Imre Speizer, FX Strategist at Westpac.
Key Quotes
"The NZD should continue to be supported by the RBNZ’s tightening cycle. As long as 0.8600 (previous multi-year range top - holds, a test of the 0.8840 record high is in prospect."
"The NZD has been the top performing major currency this year, up 5.7% vs the US dollar. Until NZ interest rate markets reach the point of overpricing the full tightening cycle, there is potential for further upside. Note that speculative positioning is not yet stretched."
"Key risks to our outlook come from both NZ and the US. If the NZD rises faster than fundamentals justify, or if housing slows by more than the RBNZ forecasts, then the OCR track may need to be lowered. Regarding the US, there is potential for positive data surprises during the months ahead, which would be bullish for the US dollar."
Key Quotes
"The NZD should continue to be supported by the RBNZ’s tightening cycle. As long as 0.8600 (previous multi-year range top - holds, a test of the 0.8840 record high is in prospect."
"The NZD has been the top performing major currency this year, up 5.7% vs the US dollar. Until NZ interest rate markets reach the point of overpricing the full tightening cycle, there is potential for further upside. Note that speculative positioning is not yet stretched."
"Key risks to our outlook come from both NZ and the US. If the NZD rises faster than fundamentals justify, or if housing slows by more than the RBNZ forecasts, then the OCR track may need to be lowered. Regarding the US, there is potential for positive data surprises during the months ahead, which would be bullish for the US dollar."