USD/CAD: Swings are the norm - CIBC

Analysts at CIBC, see the USD/CAD pair at 1.28 near year-end but they point out it could rise to 1.38 by the end of next year. 

Key Quotes: 

“Our outlook for the Canadian dollar has it appreciating over the remainder of this year, reaching 1.28 versus the dollar by the first quarter of 2020, as the Fed trims rates a couple of times while the Bank of Canada remains on the sidelines.”

“We still believe the longer-term trend in CAD is towards further weakness, given the economy’s international competitiveness issues. Our forecast for USDCAD to reach 1.38 by the end of next year, though, has some wondering if such swing in the currency is likely. Looking at the past twenty years of data, not only are such swings possible, they are actually the norm.”

“The average difference between the minimum and maximum value of the Canadian dollar over any 12 month period is 15 cents. It’s the lack of volatility in the past year that’s so unual.”