WTI stays calm above $65 after closing in the red last week

• Crude oil is trading in a tight range at the start of the week.
• Reuters report shows US continued to ramp up oil supplies in February.
• Investors await weekly crude oil inventory data from US.

Crude oil prices are fluctuating in a narrow band on Monday amid a lack of significant fundamental drivers. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which lost 1% last week, is currently trading flat on the day at $65.55.

Earlier in the day, Reuters reported that the US surpassed Saudi Arabia with regards to oil exports to India in February. "Refiners boosted cheaper US crude purchases to record levels to offset OPEC+ supply cuts, data from trade sources showed," Reuters explained. This development suggests that WTI could struggle to continue to rise with the US production offsetting the positive effect of OPEC+ cuts on prices.

Later in the week, investors will keep a close eye on the American Petroleum Institute's and the US Energy Information Administration's weekly oil inventory data.

Oil outlook

Commenting on the oil market outlook, "we expect the global oil market to be in a slightly bigger deficit in the first half of the year than we had expected, which will provide a further boost to prices," said Capital Economics strategists. "Nevertheless, we still think that the price of Brent (WTI) will fall to $70 ($67) per barrel by end-2021 and $60 ($57) by end-2022, respectively, as the boost from pent-up demand fades and supply revives."

Technical levels to watch for